This is a talk I gave to a group of parents last night. Thank you so much, Kinder HSPVA PTO, for hosting me!
You know you’ve got to apply to college, and you know that you’ll probably be applying to more than one. (In 2024-25 the national average was almost seven applications per student.) So how does a high school student decide which schools are best for them?
Let’s start with some numbers: there are around 1,500 accredited, public or non-profit, bachelor degree-conferring colleges in the U.S. So you have 1,500 “good” colleges to begin with, not counting community colleges, trade schools, and international universities. To not completely overwhelm yourself and have time to make informed decisions, you have to get your list down to about 20-40 colleges. You’ll probably apply to 4-20. You’ll attend one…or at least one at a time.
How do I narrow it down to 20-40?
First, you have to know what it is you’re looking for. “Good college,” “great college,” and “the best college I can get into” are not useful search terms. Spend time working on a college mission statement that is honest, specific, and realistic. Begin with this template: “I want to _____ at a _____ school with _____.” Here are some examples.
I want to study art at a liberal arts college—not an art school—with access to local art institutions outside of the college.
I want to explore people’s motivations and patterns of behavior, probably through a psychology or sociology degree, at an urban university with opportunities for community engagement.
I want to major in mechanical engineering at a big comprehensive university with a strong sense of school spirit and strong alumni network.
I want to get a math degree in an urban area at a school with strong autism support and gender-neutral housing available.
The main things I think about when recommending schools for students are major, geography, school size, school culture, and plans beyond college. So it helps to know what you want to study, where you’d like to live, how big or small a school you’re looking for, what you want your school community to feel like, and what you want to do after college.
While it certainly helps to know those things, it’s fine if you haven’t got all those questions answered. You’ll get a better sense of what’s right for you as you look at more colleges and get a feel for things. “I don’t know” is often a really useful statement in terms of major or other preferences. Being honest about “I don’t know” is much better than making something up to sound sure of yourself. However, if your answer to all the questions is “I don’t know,” then you’re going to have a hard time narrowing things down. Pick one criterion you’re pretty sure about—it’s often geography—and begin there.
If you’re really unsure how to begin, then start by looking at some profiles of schools you’ve heard of, even if you have no desire to go there. Make sure you look at a variety of college types: large public universities, small liberal arts colleges, and mid-sized public and private universities. Simply begin to look around and get a feel for what appeals to you, and then you can start searching for more schools like that. I’ve written about this before as a “mixed case.”
If you really want to make this effective, get someone to show you school profiles without the name of the school or other identifying information. Take away reputation and brand recognition and pay attention to what stands out in positive and negative ways.
Some great resources for researching colleges: The Fiske Guide, BigFuture, Princeton Review, Common Data Sets, and ChatGPT or other AI apps. I think you should avoid Reddit until you’re getting to the point of making decisions, not early basic research.
College ranking sites can be quite useful, if used properly. Make sure you look at multiple ranking sites, not just one, and look for schools they all seem to agree on. When possible, understand what criteria the ranking sites use, because that may or not match what you would use to rank colleges. And definitely don’t get caught up in the order—there’s nothing inherently better about the number 15 school over the number 35 school.
When you’re compiling your list of 20-40, make sure you check your acceptance rate diversity: make sure you have at least two schools that are a good match that you are quite confident will accept you. Look for these schools first, not as an afterthought. They’re not “safeties,” schools you apply to because you think they’ll accept you even though you don’t want to go. They’re good-match schools that you are also confident will accept you.
How can you be confident that a college will accept you? That also takes some honest self-knowledge. As a consultant, I mostly work with students who have very high GPAs (about half are in the top quarter of their graduating class, and almost all of them are in the top half). They’ve taken multiple AP classes or IB classes, and they’re involved in interesting things outside of class. So for them, we usually focus on colleges with acceptance rates of 50% or higher to be confident of acceptance—and even that’s obviously not guaranteed. For other students we adjust that up: solid students without as many upper-level courses will look at acceptance rates of 70% or higher. If you’ve had major setbacks that resulted in failing grades, taking a minimum schedule, or taking time off from school, we may bump the threshold up to 90%. I never try to guess what schools are a “safety, target, and reach” for any individual student. I simply figure out if we’re looking at a 50%, 70%, or 90% acceptance rate threshold to determine where I’m confident they’ll be accepted.
But if you’re confident you’ll be accepted, why have two of those colleges? Isn’t one enough? I encourgage everyone to apply to at least two schools where they’re confident they’ll be accepted because sometimes—rarely, but sometimes—a school may still deny a student. So it helps to have another. But mostly I want every applicant to have more than one choice. Even if it’s a rough application season and you’re only accepted to those two colleges, you’re still making a choice. You feel like you have agency and power. That’s really important. And let’s also take a moment to stop and recognize that schools with high acceptance rates aren’t less than or worse than schools with lower acceptance rates. There’s no correlation between acceptance rate and quality. Many students with stellar applications still mostly apply to colleges with high acceptance rates simply because the sort of schools they’re looking for tend to have higher acceptance rates.
No more than 25% of your list should be schools with an acceptance rate under 20%—so 10 at most. Once a college has an acceptance rate under that threshold, absolutely no one can be confident they’ll be accepted. These schools get many more qualified applicants than they can accept, so they will deny admission to even highly qualified people. I never discourage anyone from applying to these schools—I won’t tell anyone not to bother because they won’t get in. But I tell everyone not to make these schools too big a part of their list or to spend most of their energy on these schools, because they probably won’t get in.
Once you have a list of potential colleges narrowed down to 20-40, you can…keep updating it. Spend more time researching schools, spending time on their websites, using their virtual tour options, maybe going on in-person tours, and looking for other schools that may match your criteria. You can begin this process as soon as 9th grade, and it keeps going until you actually apply in 12th grade. But be careful, don’t let that list get over 40. You have to make some choices about where you won’t be applying; don’t just keep adding schools to the list!
How do I decide which 4-20 to apply?
When it’s time to start applying, keep that acceptance diversity in mind. Make sure you apply to at least two school’s you’re confident will accept you. Those schools should have acceptance rates of at least 50%, and possibly higher. Don’t be afraid to apply to schools with really low acceptance rates if they’re a good fit. Beyond those guidelines, acceptance rate really shouldn’t be a factor in where you apply.
When it’s time to narrow down your list to actual applications, you also need to consider cost diversity. You need to talk to your family about money and understand what your budget is. Then, pay attention to likely costs of colleges. You never know what a college will cost you until you apply, are accepted, and get a financial aid offer. But you can get good estimates by looking at average net prices. Like with selectivity, don’t be afraid to aim high in case the aid works out, but also make sure you’re applying to places that are feasible in case the aid doesn’t work out.
You should also be interacting with the schools on your list to help you narrow it down. Sign up for their mailing list, spend time reading their website, follow them on social media, go on virtual and/or in-person tours. You’re thinking about beginning a multi-year relationship with these places, so get to know them to understand where you might have the strongest relationships.
Consider the complexity of your applications in total. Do all your schools use the Common Application, and do they add a lot of supplemental questions? Will you also be using a completely different application, like the application for University of California schools? Will you be submitting any portfolios or videos? How many recommendation letters do they ask for? Not every application takes the same amount of time and energy, so get a sense of what you’re being asked to do.
It usually costs money to apply to college, around $50 per school on average. So make sure you have a budget for that. Applying to four more schools just to see what happens sounds good; spending $200 just to see what happens sounds less good.
How do I decide which college I’ll attend?
It usually comes down to two factors: price and “vibe.” If you’re looking at two comparable schools and one is significantly less expensive to attend, you should absolutely go with the less expensive one. Beyond that, this is the part where I actually encourage people to go with gut and intuition, even if they can’t explain it. The more rational and strategic you’ve been in deciding where to apply, the more secure you can feel making a choice based on emotion and feeling. You’re going to be fine.
If you’re having trouble picking, practice explaining your choice: “I’m going to _____. I almost went to _____, but _____.” Make this statement for each of the colleges you’re considering. For example, if you’re choosing between Texas Tech and the University of Arizona, practice saying—aloud, to other people—”I’m going to Texas Tech. I almost went to Arizona, but I couldn’t justify the extra cost I’d be paying” and “I’m going to the the University of Arizona. I almost went to Texas Tech, but I really waned to live someplace more urban.” See which of those statements ultimately has more appeal for you.
There’s a Buddhist saying: “The pain is inevitable, the suffering is a choice.” I would say the same about college admission. It’s stressful and tedious and difficult. But it doesn’t have to be miserable. With planning and optimism, it’s also really fun and exciting.
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